How to secure a good CDM deal at an early stage?

The CDM JI market these days is a sellers market. These Offsets (I hate the word Offset for some reason; probably because I have only thought of them as CDM/JI ) are valued anywhere from 2 to 16 Euros depending on at what stage of development they are.

An early stage project (before PIN, only at the pre-agreement level) could be captured at under 5 Euro.

But a Guaranteed CER ( the credit that is issued by a CDM project or ERU from the JI project) is above 16 and this is because the guarantor is someone that has arranged, for example, 10 million on something like delivery-versus-payment terms and can be fairly sure that he will get at least 50% of the ten million and can guarantee that half. (a crude example). Usually the bigger banking or financials that have entered the carbon space.

But to arrange a good project early, now that is the key. But how to do this? Everyone and their uncle is seeking early projects. I get calls because of my access to some of the less sophisticated markets in a variety of enterprises (emerging market, merchant wanker background). But all these aggregators are suggesting that they have something special that the other guy doesn't.

In truth, it really only takes a bit of knowledge on the type of projects that can reduce Greenhouse gases, the markets where it can be (or soon will be) applicable, and a good network in some economy in transition (well, mostly these) to be able to get a deal at an early stage. No it ain't simple, but some aspects are.

The main aspect is this: explain to the host (the company who has a location that can have GHGs reduced, captured) that they will make money and then get them to sign away their future at 2 Euros.

Alrighty, I am a huge cynic.

The interesting thing about these Offsets (I hate that word) is that the project developers are now being courted like the local pygmy chief, showing him shiny objects, marvelous gifts and even telling him he is so tall. In a few years, these guys will be on the other end of the stick I think, and it will be a buyers market.

Its a wierd market. The idea of selling a project to a buyer has so many variables. And usually they want it sold fairly quickly. Some sellers ask for surprisingly high prices. Some ask for up front payments. Buyers ask for bank guarantees (which is hard for smaller developers). Some ask for financing on the PDD work (which can be pricey).

The buyers want approved methodologies, they want bigger discounts since the projects won't deliver the amount of credits estimated. Delivery dates won't be on time, there might be some subsidies that will affect the local market, the issue of double counting has to be clarifies... on and on...

But what is good, is that .. for now at least... the buyers are all really quite nice people. It reminds me of another emerging market where all the fund managers were so nice and happy to speak to you, and then later, when the market was over serviced, they would be cruel and ask for special favours. I can see that happening.

Oh well, it really is a financial market now. Not to be confused with a green market, no way.

Nuclear Bombs Could Ruin Your Future

Here’s a pleasant news story for your sunny Tuesday morning. It was sent out by the Carbon reporter at Bloomberg.

A nuclear war involving 100.A nuclear war involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs would open a massive hole in the earth's ozone layer, exposing life to dangerous levels of the sun's rays, a new study shows. Smoke caused by the atomic explosions would trap heat in the stratosphere and lead to the deterioration of more than 20 percent of ozone globally, according to a study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings suggest a more severe ``nuclear winter'' resulting from a massive nuclear war than was predicted in the 1980s.

Link here: Earth's Ozone Would Be Largely Destroyed in Nuclear Conflict

But what I do not understand is

1) Wouldn’t the sudden shut-down of the world’s economies and industrial production assist in turning back the clock since only a fraction of the people would be alive? and um, “nuked back to the dark ages”

2) Who would care about getting killed by the weather when your teeth are falling out of your gums and you are fighting each other for that can of pork and beans.

Gored Me!

 

Yes, It Was An April Fools Joke. Gotcha! (Got Me, Actually)

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 Re Seen on Grist.org today. Below

A Gore April Fools Joke?

 

 Seen on Grist.org today. But guess what? The link goes to nowhere.